If you follow hydrogen and e-fuels markets, you've likely seen the headlines about China's green methanol ambitions. The numbers are striking: Geely's Liquid Sunshine Energy Technology subsidiary is investing 18.53 billion yuan in a project in Inner Mongolia's Alxa League, with a long-term vision of 100 million tons of annual green methanol production. China already accounts for roughly two-thirds of global methanol demand. Its shipyards are building 70% of the world's methanol-powered vessels. And three-quarters of new renewable methanol capacity worldwide is expected to come online in China by 2026.
But what do the project-level data and supply chain realities actually look like behind these headline figures?
The Alxa League project: ambition meets physics
The Geely-backed project is planned in three phases. The first phase targets a demonstration facility producing 500,000 tons of green methanol annually. The second phase would scale to 5 million tons. The long-term target of 100 million tons has no published timeline — and for good reason.
The Alxa League region has excellent renewable energy resources, with theoretical potential for 200–300 million tons of green methanol production based on available wind and solar capacity. But green methanol production requires two inputs: green hydrogen (from electrolysis powered by renewables) and a carbon source (either biogenic CO₂ or captured industrial CO₂).
The hydrogen side is challenging but achievable given sufficient renewable energy and electrolyzer deployment. The carbon source is the harder constraint. Producing green methanol at the scale China is targeting would require enormous volumes of CO₂ — and the project descriptions acknowledge that much of this would need to come from industrial carbon capture rather than biogenic sources.
This means the green methanol supply chain depends on scaling carbon capture infrastructure in parallel with renewable energy and electrolysis. Three separate infrastructure buildouts, each massive, need to converge at the same location and timeline. Our data shows this kind of multi-infrastructure convergence is where most large-scale projects encounter delays.
Methanol vehicles: the overlooked fleet
China has been developing methanol vehicles since the 1980s and is the world's largest market for methanol-powered transport. Geely has produced methanol-powered passenger cars for several years, and pilot programs run in coal-rich provinces where methanol is cheaply available.
But the fleet remains small — around 30,000 methanol vehicles compared to millions of EVs — and infrastructure is thin: fewer than 200 methanol refueling stations nationwide, concentrated in pilot program regions.
The strategic argument for methanol vehicles is compelling: they're cheaper to produce than EVs, compatible with existing liquid fuel infrastructure, and methanol can be produced domestically rather than imported. For commercial vehicles — trucks and buses — where battery weight and charging time are constraints, methanol offers advantages that batteries don't.
The data question is whether the production infrastructure (green methanol plants) and the consumption infrastructure (vehicles, refueling stations) are developing in sync. Our tracking suggests they're not yet aligned, with production ambitions running well ahead of demand-side deployment.
The maritime connection
Perhaps the most commercially advanced application is maritime. The International Maritime Organization's emissions regulations have driven shipping companies to explore alternative fuels, and methanol is emerging as a leading candidate. Maersk has ordered methanol-powered container ships. Chinese shipyards are building the majority of the world's methanol-capable vessels.
This creates an interesting dynamic: China is positioning itself to produce green methanol, build the ships that consume it, and potentially dominate both sides of a new fuel supply chain. For port infrastructure operators, fuel suppliers, and shipping companies outside China, understanding this supply chain integration is a strategic priority.
What matters for your analysis
China's green methanol program is one of the most ambitious industrial policy initiatives in the energy transition — and one of the least well covered by structured data. Most analysis relies on government announcements and company press releases without tracking the project-level details that determine whether ambition translates into reality.
We track methanol projects alongside hydrogen, CCUS, and renewable energy in our knowledge graph, with the cross-sector connections that matter: which electrolyzer capacity feeds which methanol synthesis plants, which CO₂ sources connect to which production facilities, and which downstream applications (maritime, vehicles, chemicals) are contracted to consume the output.
If your organization is evaluating methanol as a market, a fuel, or an investment theme, the quality of your project-level data determines whether you're working from headlines or from the actual state of the supply chain.